Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
