A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
